Who Pays for the Extra Knockout Round at the 2026 World Cup?

The 2026 World Cup expands to 48 teams and adds a round of 32, one extra knockout match between the contenders and the trophy. This paper builds an Elo model of the field and measures who that extra round costs. Not the favorite: Spain’s chances barely move. The teams that pay are the next tier down, Colombia, Brazil, Portugal and the Netherlands, each losing one to two points of championship probability.

Written in May, before a ball was kicked. A postscript covers how the tournament went.

I wrote this in May 2026, before the series started, and corrected it in September 2026.